英文原文：Keeping Tabs on China's Growth

　　Experts predict the Mainland will overtake the U.S. economy by 2050, but bigger isn't necessarily more competitive

　　With each passing year, China's hyper-growth story continues to inspire a mixture of awe and fear among commentators and business executives in the West. And I expect a forecast released on May 22 by the global accountants PricewaterhouseCoopers will ratchet up anxiety levels even more. In a crystal ball macro-economic modeling exercise, Pricewaterhouse sees China overtaking the U.S. as the world's biggest economy by 2050 if you adjust currency exchange rates to match forecasted living standards mid-century or so. Advertisement

　　Now, I have nothing against this kind of forecasting (even if this particular example surely won't hurt ricewaterhouseCoopers' own business prospects on the Mainland). Such efforts are interesting exercises, and the company is clear about its methodology and forecast assumptions.

　　The report, entitled "The World in 2050," also puts forward thought-provoking predictions about other emerging economies, such as Brazil, India, and Russia. It makes reassuring noises that the rise of these societies will offer up huge trade opportunities for the U.S., Japan, Germany, and other nations that are going to fall down in the pecking order of big economies. (You can download the report for free by filling out a quick registration form at pwcglobal.com.)

　　QUESTION OF RELIANCE. Yet the real issue -- whether you're thinking in terms of now, mid-century, or in the year 2100 -- isn't really which economy is the biggest. Rather, it's which economy is home to a preponderance of world-class companies? By world class, I mean those that enjoy leadership in technologies that matter and are hard to duplicate, and those that kick tail in economic productivity. These metrics, much more than aggregate gross domestic product, really determine the quality of economic growth and living standards.